I don't see why Ohio can not win this game and the value is there at +460 for sure. Ohio is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Conference USA and they beat both North Texas and Marshall this year who were two of the best in the conference. East Carolina is now 6-18 ATS in their last 24 vs. a winning team and their 4 game winning streak that gave them momentum into the Marshall game that they lost 28-59 was agaainst the worst of the CUSA conference. The 4 wins came against a combined 7-41 team record from their opponents. East Carolina's offense was not as good as it was in years past being far too one dimensional ranking 102nd in rushing yards and 10th in passing and go up against Ohio's 29th ranked passing defense that held Rakeem Cato to 1 TD and 1 INT.
What I like most about this game is East Carolina probably is not too pumped to be here. When you look at their year they almost went 3-0 against the ACC, but lost 10-15 against Virginia Tech. Playing Ohio in the Beef O Brady bowl is nothing glamorous when they thought they were headed to the CUSA Championship and then possibly the Liberty Bowl to face an SEC team. Now Ohio had a very up and down year, but they were consistent as far as what type of teams they struggled against. Their 5 losses came because their offense struggled. Ohio is a team that can be effective running the ball against good run defense, but when they can't pass they are in serious trouble. All 5 losses came against very good secondaries as Kent State was 27th vs. the pass, Bowling Green 4th, Buffalo 38th, Central Mich 20th, and Louisville 8th. East Carolina's pass defense was exposed down the stretch. They ranked 90th in passing yards allowed and played the following opponents ranking 86, 70, 35, 83, 108, 112, 117, 121, 77, 91, 19. Not a lot of capable passers and Ohio's 5th year senior Tyler Tettleton has a major chip on his shoulder and is a very good QB.
